预报第23周平滑月平均太阳黑子数的一种方法  

A Method for the Prediction of the Monthly Smoothed Sunspot Numbers of the 23^(th) Cycle

作　　者：赵海娟[1] 梁红飞[1] 占腊生[1] 钟树华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台,昆明650011

出　　处：《天文学报》2003年第3期279-285,共7页Acta Astronomica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号10073019)

摘　　要：利用已知的22个完整太阳活动周平滑月平均黑子数的记录,对正在进行的太阳周发展趋势给出了预测方法,并应用于第23周,同时与其他预报方法的结果进行了比较。A lot of methods have been employed to predict the solar activities, which include the statistic and precursor methods. In this paper, a method is proposed to give the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of a progressing cycle. In the method, the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of the first several years of cycle 23 are moved to compare with each of the preceding cycles 1 to 22, respectively. By determining the amplitude parameter 'm' to ensure the two cycles to be the most similar, and 'm' is found to tend to be a certain value at early stage. Thus future behavior in an ongoing cycle can be determined by previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures, finally, the remainder of the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of cycle 23 are given by using the method, and a comparison of this method with the similar cycle method is given as well.

关 键 词：太阳活动 太阳黑子 预报 短波辐射 粒子辐射 

分 类 号：P182[天文地球—天文学]