世界经济形势分析与展望  

World Economy Analysis and Forecast

作　　者：陈凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究所

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2003年第12期25-28,共4页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：世界经济经历美国股市泡沫破灭、伊拉克战争等冲击后,开始缓步进入复苏期。2003年,世界经济增长形势趋好,主要表现在:2003年经济增长好于上年,2004年将好于2003年;美国仍是世界经济增长的“引擎”;日本经济形势转好,欧元区形势恶化;发展中国家总体向好,亚洲有望再次成为“增长极”。此外,世界贸易与投资恢复增长,活力渐显;股市与汇市调整加速,波动加剧;国际能源竞争激烈,油价稳中趋降。俄罗斯和中东能源市场加速开放,“能源商机”会使其引资能力增强。影响未来国际油价走势的因素主要是:俄罗斯已经成为国际石油市场上的战略卖家;伊拉克石油生产正在恢复;西非、中亚等新产油地有很大的增产潜力。the world economy has started a slow recoveryfollowing the deflation of bubbles in the U.S. stock marketand the Iraq war. The year 2003 has seen an encouragingupturn in the world economy, primarily indicated by thefaster growth in 2003 than in the previous year and byindications that the momentum will continue in 2004. TheU.S. is still the “engine” of the world economy. TheJapanese economy is improving, while things are gettingworse in the EU. Developing countries, on the whole, arefaring well. Asia is likely to be the growth bell-weatheronce again. In addition, world trade and investment arestarting to show signs of increasing vitality. Adjustmentsin stock and foreign exchange markets are gainingmomentum, resulting in intensified fluctuations.International competition is fierce in the energy field, andthe price of oil is on a downward trend. Russia and theMiddle East are speeding up the opening of their energyT25markets, enhancing their attraction of capital, bringingabundant business opportunities in the energy field. Factorsinfluencing future trends in international oil prices primarilyinclude the following: Russia has become a major supplierin the international oil market; oil production in Iraq is onthe way to recovery; new oil-producing areas such as WestAfrica and Central Asia exhibit a strong potential forproduction increases.

关 键 词：世界经济 经济增长 经济预测 经济形势 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]