应急预案的执行状态优化问题研究  

Research on Executing State Optimization of Emergency Plan

作　　者：石彪[1] 薛旭旭 池宏[1] 祁明亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学工程科学学院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2017年第3期130-136,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：突发事件的发展演变具有极强的不确定性,随着时间的推进,突发事件对应急处置的需求会发生变化,而处于执行过程中的预案,尤其是其中的部分工序可能不再适用,及时地调整预案工序的执行状态对提升整体应急处置效率具有重要意义。针对突发事件应急处置中不确定的应急处置需求,结合应急处置与事件演化的动态博弈特征,从可操作性应急预案的执行工序层面对应急预案的执行状态优化问题进行了研究,解决了特定时刻预案工序的执行状态选择问题,为根据突发事件的实时信息调整可操作性应急预案工序的执行状态提供决策辅助。The development of emergency has a strong uncertainty,the demand of emergency treatment will change as emergency plan executing,so the overall plan or part of the processes may not be applicable for the changed demand,it will be significant to change the executing state of those processes for improving emergency response efficiency.In order to respond to uncertaintyemergency needs,consideringdynamic game features between the evolution of emergenciesand emergency response,the optimization problem of executing state has been studied in operational level,which can help selecting executing state in a specific moment as the emergency needs changed,and providingdecision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.

关 键 词：突发事件 应急预案 执行状态优化 

分 类 号：C931.1[经济管理—管理学]