考虑伤员心理状况的应急医疗救护问题研究  

The Emergency Victims Rescue Problem Considering Psychological Condition

作　　者：张晨晓 祝蕊 刘海月 张江华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学管理学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2017年第10期187-196,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(71571111);山东大学齐鲁(仲英)青年学者资助

摘　　要：大规模伤亡事件(MCI)发生后,为不同伤员选择相应的医疗机构并决定伤员运送的先后顺序是救援的关键。医疗机构的选择和伤员运送的先后顺序不仅取决于伤员伤势严重程度和医疗资源(如医护人员、医院设施、救护车辆等)的数量,还与伤员的心理状况密切相关。本文针对事故发生后的应急响应阶段,综合考虑不同医疗机构资源的动态变化、伤员的实时生存概率和心理状况,构建了以伤员生存概率最大化和心理成本最小化为目标的双目标规划模型,运用模糊线性规划法将其转化,并通过IBM.ILOG.CPLEX进行模型求解。最后,通过对不同医疗资源数量情景下的实验进行比较分析,验证了本文模型和方法的有效性。Natural disasters,conflicts and other emergencies threaten the lives and health of millions of people every year.During these casualty incidents,to which one of several area hospitals should each victim be sent?How is the order of delivery of casualties determined?Although much research work on these questions has been done,very few takes the psychological status of casualties into account.Injured people will have anxiety,panic and other emotions,which also affect how smoothly rescue work in a way.Therefore,besides resource availability(both ambulances and care)and injury condition of patients,rescue decisions depend on the psychological status of casualties.In this paper,the method calculating psychological costs is improved,and a bi-objective programming model is developed to minimize the psychological cost and maximize the casualty survival probability.Focus is put on the critical time period immediately following the onset of an MCI,and many facts including the dynamic changes of resources in different medical institutions,the real-time survival probability and the psychological condition of the wounded are considered.The bi-objective programming model is transformed by the fuzzy multi-objective linear programming,and solved using the mathematical programming solver,IBM.ILOG.CPLEX.Finally,a number of experiments are carried out under different conditions of rescue resources,and the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified by these experiments.This paper would be a theoretical base and potential practice solution for emergency for victim rescue problem.

关 键 词：大规模伤亡事件 伤员救护 生存概率 心理成本 模糊线性规划 

分 类 号：D630.9[政治法律—政治学] R459.7[政治法律—中外政治制度]