1854-2010年川西高原北部初夏气温变化与全球海表温度关系初探  

The Relationship Between Early Summer Air Temperature and the Global Sea Surface Temperature in the North of Western Sichuan Plateau from 1854 to 2010

作　　者：李金建[1,2] 邵雪梅[3] 李媛媛[1,2] 秦宁生[1,2] 杨涛 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]四川省农业气象中心,四川成都610072 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]四川省大气探测中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2015年第4期1024-1035,共12页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41405077;41375116;41075066)

摘　　要：本文利用主成分分析法提取了川西高原北部5个样点反映气温变化的树轮宽度年表的主成分年表,其中第一主成分年表(PC1)的方差贡献率为59.52%,能够较好地代表川西高原北部地区树轮宽度变化的共同特征。在器测时段内(1961—2010年),PC1年表、6—7月区域平均气温观测序列与东亚气温场的相关分布较为一致,均与中国的西北-青藏高原一带以及西伯利亚东部呈现显著的正相关(r>0.443,p<0.001),表明PC1年表能够反映较大空间范围的气温变化特征。器测时期,PC1年表和观测序列与全球海温场的相关分析表明,两者均与西太平洋、印度洋及北大西洋海域显著正相关,反映了在海气相互作用过程中多个海区海表温度变化可能对研究区气温变化有一定影响;而利用PC1年表在更长时间尺度(1854—2010年)及分阶段分析则发现不同阶段对区域气温起主导作用的海区有比较明显的差异,甚至在比较大的空间范围内在不同阶段出现相反的分布型,且由相关系数反映出的海气相互作用强度也具有显著的差异,气温波动较大时,海气相互作用也比较强烈。异常年分析则反映出西北太平洋和北大西洋海温异常对研究区气温异常具有持续稳定的影响。In this paper,five tree-ring chronologies from the north of Western Sichuan Plateau were analyzed for regional common information by using the principal component analysis(PCA)method.The variance contribution of first principal component(PC1)is 59.52%,which could represent the most common features about the tree-ring variations of north of Western Sichuan Plateau.During 1961-2010,the spatial correlation between meteorological records and PC1 chronology with CRU data were calculated.The result suggested the PC1 could represent air temperature variation in larger scale,and positively correlated with that in Northwestern China-Tibet Plateau and Eastern Siberia(r>0.443,p<0.001).The PC1 and meteorological records were used to investigate the influence of global SST on the regional temperature variability during the modern instrumental observation period(1961-2010),the coincident significant positive correlation were observed for the Western Pacific,the Equatorial Indian Ocean,the South Subtropical Indian Ocean,the Equatorial Atlantic and the North Atlantic.It indicated that the change of multiple ocean sea surface temperature could effect on which is in the studied area.However,by the using the PC1 chronology in the longer time scale(1854-2010)and phased analysis found the obvious differences of different stages on the temperature leading regional sea,and even opposite distribution patterns exist in different stages in larger space.The correlation coefficient of the intensity of the air-sea interaction has significant difference.When the temperatures fluctuation was severer,the air-sea interaction was more intense.The results of abnormal analysis suggest that the influence of the northwestern Pacific and northern Atlantic SST are stable and sustained.

关 键 词：川西高原 树木年轮 气温 海表温度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P461.2