基于模糊Markov过程的复杂系统可靠性仿真评估  

Simulation Evaluation of Complex System Reliability Based on Fuzzy Markov Process

作　　者：曹军海[1] 杜海东[1] 申莹[1] 滕尚儒 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院技术保障工程系,北京100072

出　　处：《装甲兵工程学院学报》2015年第6期93-97,共5页Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering

基　　金：军队科研计划项目

摘　　要：针对系统动态可靠性中的不确定性问题,将动态故障树分析方法与模糊理论相结合,提出了基于模糊Markov过程的复杂系统动态可靠性仿真评估方法。首先,结合模糊理论与故障树方法,对基于模糊故障树的复杂系统可靠性模型进行了描述;其次,对动态故障树模型与的Markov过程模型的转换方法进行了研究,构建了复杂系统模糊动态可靠性评估模型,给出了系统模糊可靠度Monte Carlo仿真方法,并针对模糊隶属度难以求解的问题,结合目标规划模型,设计了动态隶属度确定算法;最后,以某型内燃机为例,对方法的科学性和有效性进行了验证。For the uncertainty problem existing in dynamic reliability of complex system,the thesis presents the simulation evaluation method for dynamic reliability based on fuzzy Markov process by combining dynamic fault tree analysis method with fuzzy theory. Firstly,a complex system reliability model based on the fuzzy fault tree is described; then,the transformation method between dynamic fault tree model and Markov process model is studied,the evaluation model for fuzzy dynamic reliability of complex system is established,a Monte Carlo simulation method for fuzzy reliability membership is given and a dynamic membership determining algorithm is designed according to objective planning model. At last,the scientific nature and effectiveness is verified by the example of internal combustion engine.

关 键 词：模糊Markov过程 可靠性 仿真评估 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] TK401[理学—数学]