高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究  

Research on the relationship between discrete character of speed and traffic accident and speed management of freeway

作　　者：裴玉龙[1] 程国柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2004年第1期74-78,共5页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：交通部行业联合科技攻关项目(95-05-01-14)

摘　　要：对高速公路的车速标准差和亿车公里事故率的数据进行回归分析,建立了二者的关系模型,模型表明车速分布越离散,事故率越高,从而为高速公路的车速限制提供了理论依据。利用中国14条高速公路的地点车速调查数据,对15％位车速、85％位车速与单圆曲线的曲率变化率CCRs进行回归分析,分别建立了85％位车速与CCRs的回归模型以及15％位车速与CCRs的回归模型,利用这些模型提出了合理的基于交通安全的车速限制建议值。The relation model is established between speed standard deviation and accident rate per 100 000 000 vehicle kilometers by regression analysis. The model shows that the more discrete speed distribution causes the higher accident rate, which provides theoretical gist for speed limit on freeway. Through analyzing spot speed investigation data of fourteen freeways in China, regression models are established between 85th percentile speed and CCRs (curvature changing rate of single circular curve) ,15th percentile speed and CCRs. Reasonable speed limit suggestion values are put forward through these models.

关 键 词：交通工程 车速限制 回归分析 车速标准差 亿车公里事故率 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]