垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目收益的系统动力学模型  

System Dynamics Model on Revenue for BOT Waste-to-energy Incineration Projects

作　　者：宋金波[1] 宋丹荣[1,2] 付亚楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工商管理学院,大连116024 [2]辽宁科技大学工商管理学院,鞍山114008

出　　处：《管理评论》2015年第3期67-74,共8页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71072107;71272091;71472022);辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(LJQ2013011);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DUT14RW210)

摘　　要：在垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的前期决策中,项目收益是政府和项目公司展开谈判的基础问题。通过对此类项目收益系统的影响因素分析,基于系统动力学方法构建了项目收益模型,并运用模糊逻辑方法研究了地区经济发展水平和政府履约程度等定性因素对模型的影响。在此基础上,运用系统动力学分析软件Vensim PLE和MATLAB软件中的模糊逻辑工具箱,对垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目案例进行模拟。根据项目收益变化情况的模拟结果,讨论了在政府部门和项目公司各自期望的收益水平下特许期和特许价格的合理决策,并分析了特许期、特许价格和垃圾热值变化对项目收益的影响,从而为政府和项目公司运作垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目提供了决策参考。In the decision-making phase of a build-operate-transfer( BOT) waste-to-energy( WTE) incineration project,revenue of the project is a basic issue and it will have an impact on negotiations of the concession agreement between the government and the private sector. Based on the analysis of influencing factors as well as the cause and effect feedback loops of the factors for the revenue system,system dynamics approach and fuzzy logic are adopted. The former is to formulate a mathematical model which calculates the influencing factors,quantify the interactions between pair-wise factors,and forecast the project revenue. In addition,the latter is to identify the effect that some qualitative factors( e. g. level of regional economic development,degree of governmental fulfillment guarantee) bring to the system dynamics model. Then software programs of Vensim PLE for system dynamics and MATLAB for fuzzy logic are designed,and a case study of BOT WTE incineration project is simulated to demonstrate the proposed model. According to the simulation results,the project revenue is calculated,and reasonable decision making on concession period and price are analyzed based on the expected revenue levels of the government and the private sector respectively. Further,a sensitivity analysis of the revenue for the system dynamics model is performed,and influences on revenue caused by the variation of concession period,concession price,and heat value of municipal solid waste are simulated and discussed. As a result,some recommendations are tentatively proposed for the government and the private sector to better estimate,determine and operate the BOT WTE incineration projects in practice.

关 键 词：垃圾焚烧发电 BOT 收益 系统动力学 模糊逻辑 

分 类 号：TM619[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]