分站客观降水预报试验(英文)  

An Objective Forecast Experiment in Precipitation at Stations

作　　者：邵明轩[1] 吴庆丽[1] 刘凤辉[2] 魏建明[2] 窦以文[2] 徐芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学物理学院大气科学系 [2]北京市气象局,北京100089 [3]国家知识产权局,中国专利信息中心北京100088

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2004年第1期46-55,共10页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"中国强降水天气数值预报研究"(4 0 2 330 36 );北京市奥运会气象保障科学技术试验与研究子课题"城市气象精细预报技术研究"(H0 2 0 6 2 0 2 5 0 330 )资助项目

摘　　要：将逐时段定点降水非连续量的预报问题转化为对一个连续的降水可能函数的预报问题。降水可能函数为一由实况值确定的函数。发展了一种新的非线性多因子动态组合方法 ,通过对降水可能函数的预报 ,作客观分站降水预报。 1998年在北京地区 15站进行了为期半年的预报试验 ,当天夜间的降水预报平均CSI得分为 0 4 0 ,第二天白天平均CSI得分为 0 4 0。The forecast of precipitation at station is usually as the forecast of a discontinuous variable.In this paper,the forecast is transformed into a forecast of a continuous variable—possibility function of precipitation(PFP).PFP is determined by observations.And a new method,dynamic combination equation of nonlinear multi-factors(DCENMF),has been developed to forecast precipitation at station by forecasting PFP.Based on this approach,experimental objective forecasts of precipitation at stations were made in Beijing district from July to December 1998.Precipitation forecasts for 15 stations are assessed by the critical success index (CSI). The mean CSI is 0.40 for the night,and 0.33 for the next day.

关 键 词：降水可能函数 非线性多因子 动态方程 分站降水预报 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]