影响港元汇率的外部因素:来自其他货币汇率变动的冲击  

External Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate of Hong Kong Dollar: the Impacts Coming from Other Currencies

作　　者：林江[1] 夏育松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学港澳珠三角研究中心,岭南学院.广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报（社会科学版）》2004年第1期84-91,共8页Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"影响港元稳定的因素及对策研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：香港是一个高度开放的小规模经济体,容易受到外来因素的冲击。在这种情况下,港元汇率也经常受到来自贸易伙伴或贸易竞争对手等其他国家或地区的货币汇率变动的影响。本文详细分析了其他货币汇率变动对港元汇率的两个层次的影响,指出港元汇率与这些货币汇率之间存在长期必然的关系,并且运用了协整分析的计量方法,得到了实证结果的支持。为维护港元汇率的稳定,香港当局必须针对不同的影响分别予以应对之策。Hong Kong is easily affected by the outer factors, as it is of a small economy with high open degree. So the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar often gets influenced by the change of the currency exchange rate of its trade companions or competitors. This article analyzes the influences in two aspects in detail, and indicates the existence of the long-term relationship between the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar and the exchange rate of other currencies, which is supported by the empirical results attained through the application of the econometric method and co-integration analysis. To maintain the stability of Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong government must make countermeasures for different influences respectively.

关 键 词：港元汇率 贸易收支 其他汇率 协整 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]