基于证据理论的软件开发风险评估方法  

Research on the Measure of Risk in the Course of Software Development

作　　者：鞠彦兵[1] 冯允成[1] 姚李刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》2003年第3期218-223,共6页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助课题 ( 7993 0 90 0 )

摘　　要：通过将软件开发过程分解为分析、设计、实施阶段 ,根据决策者对每一阶段的技术风险、费用风险、进度风险的确信度 ,给出了一种基于 Dempster- Shafer证据组合理论的风险评估方法。从而 ,将软件开发过程中影响风险的多种不确定性定性指标转化为确定的定量指标进行评价。最后通过实例说明了该方法的有效性。Based on Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory, an evaluation of risk used to evaluate the risks of software development is proposed. This method is obtained through decomposing the process of software development into analyses, design and implement as well, and decision maker's degree of trust about the technology risk, cost risk,advance risk of every stage. By using this method to fuse the uncertain multiattributes affecting the risk of software development, the risk evaluation problem is converted into a difinite multiple attributes evaluation problem. Finally, an example demonstrates the validity of this method.

关 键 词：软件开发 风险评估 风险评价 确信度 Dempster-Shafer证据组合理论 

分 类 号：F407.67[经济管理—产业经济]