论工业的适度快速增长  

On Optimum Fast Growth of China's Manufacture Industry

作　　者：吕政[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2004年第2期5-10,共6页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：从 2 0 0 2年开始 ,我国工业又进入一轮新的快速增长阶段。工业的高速增长主要是由投资需求和进出口的高增长拉动的。在工业经济效益显著提高的同时 ,也付出了很高的能源、原材料和资金投入代价。工业发展和运行过程中出现了一些不容忽视的问题。以高投入换来的高增长不具有可持续性。适度增长 ,应当是再生产过程的主要比例关系协调、有效利用生产要素、可持续地快速增长。从 2 0 0 4— 2 0 1 0年 ,GDP和工业较为适度的增长速度应分别为 8%和 1 1 %— 1 2 %。为了实现经济增长的预期目标 ,需要有效地控制固定资产投资规模 ,固定资产投资增长率与GDP增长率之间的比例关系以保持在2 5∶1的水平上比较合理。低水平的重复建设突出表现在钢铁、汽车等行业。解决的办法是 :制定市场准入标准和规则 ,增强商业银行信贷的约束机制 ,提高商业银行信贷决策水平 。China's manufacture industry entered a new turn of fast growth stage starting from 2002. The main factors of the fast growth are: large demand of investment and fast growth of import and export. However China paid high input cost of energy, raw material and fund while increase of its industrial efficiency. China should not overlook the problems existed during the process of the development, high growth paid for high input with not sustainable development. Optimum growth should be appropriately proportional relationship of reproduction, make use of production factors and keep sustainable development. The optimum growth rate of China's GDP and manufacture industry should be 8% and 11%—12% from the year of 2004 to 2010. Therefore it is necessary to control investment scale of fixed assets, the appropriate proportion of growth rate of fixed assets and GDP should be 2.5∶1 in order to realize the expected target of economic growth. The low level of duplicated items of construction are existed in the industries of steel, automobile and etc. The way to solve the problem are: make out standards and regulations of entrance, improve restrained system of commercial bank credit, increase decision making level of commercial bank credit and related industrial trades provide more market information for investors.

关 键 词：工业经济 中国 工业增长率 固定资产投资 GDP 国内生产总值 投资增长率 “低水平重复建设” 钢铁工业 汽车工业 开发区 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]