应用捕获-再捕获法估计5岁以下儿童死亡漏报率及死亡率  

Application of Capture-recapture Method in Estimating the Under-reoprting Rate and Child Mortality Under Age 5

作　　者：符文华[1] 康晓平[2] 谷渊[3] 王晓琴 

机构地区：[1]沈阳市疾病预防控制中心,110031 [2]北京大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系 [3]沈阳预防医学研究所 [4]内蒙古自治区妇幼保健院

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2004年第1期21-23,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的　探索用捕获 再捕获方法 (CRM )估计 5岁以下儿童死亡漏报率和死亡率 ,评价卫生部门收集 5岁以下儿童死亡资料的准确程度。方法　利用内蒙古喀喇沁旗卫生和计生两部门 1997～ 2 0 0 0年的 5岁以下儿童死亡登记资料通过核对、入户核查 ,用CRM估计儿童死亡率。结果　用CRM估计研究地区 1997～ 2 0 0 0年 5岁以下儿童死亡数为3 99人 ,卫生部门的漏报率为 2 4 8%,并且存在死亡儿童年龄越低死亡漏报率越高的现象 ;卫生部门 1997～ 2 0 0 0年报表登记的 5岁以下儿童平均死亡率为 2 2 97‰ ,估计 5岁以下儿童死亡率为 3 0 5 5‰ ,高于将两部门资料合并得到的儿童死亡率 2 8 5 6‰。结论　可以利用卫生和计生部门现有的信息依靠CRM校正因漏报而造成的数值误差 ,获得较准确的儿童死亡率。但在使用时必须注意其使用的前提条件 ,不能盲目地套用公式。Objective In order to explore the way for obtaining a relative real number and child mortality under age 5 in rural area in china. Methods By using capture-recapture methods,to estimate child mortality Under age 5 on the data of health registries and family planning registries about death of children in Kalaqin county during 1997-2000 year.Results Under-reporting rate under age 5 of health registries was 24.8% and under-reporting rate of neonate was the hightest in kaqi. The mortality of U5 reported by public health department was 22.97‰ during 1997-2000, it was 30.55‰ by using CRM estimated. CRM was better than common way of merging two data of registries.Conclusion It was possible to use CRM to obtain the correct death rate of U5 on the data of health registries and family planning registries about death of children. But we should notice the conditions when we use CRM.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获法 儿童 死亡漏报率 死亡率 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]