50年来新疆粮食增产因素的主成分分析  

Analysis on Factors of Xinjiang Grain Increase Production in Recent 50 Years with Principal Components Method

作　　者：陶江[1] 杨德刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2004年第1期95-99,共5页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：中科院创新项目 (KZCX -0 8-0 1-0 2 );国家科技攻关项目 ( 2 0 0 1BA5 0 8B2 4)

摘　　要：用主成分分析的方法研究新疆建国以来粮食增产的主要因素的贡献率 ,总结出新疆粮食增产不同阶段的相应特点 :194 9～ 196 7年为面积推动阶段 ;196 8～ 1974年为面积稳定与水利联合推动阶段 ;1975～ 1995年为单产提高与化肥联合推动阶段 ;1996～ 2 0 0 1年为农机与水利联合推动阶段。由此总结出各要素的相互协调配合是粮食产量进一步提高的关键。在上述分析的基础上提出新疆粮食生产发展趋势是提高单产 ;大力发展节水农业 ;发展后续加工业 ,加快市场化进程。The influence factors on the grain yield of Xinjiang in recent 50 years have been analyzed with principal components method. The results indicated that grain yield has different characteristics in different phases: (1)the area increasing is the primary factor on the grain yield in 1949～1967; (2)the stableness of area and water conservancy promote the grain yield in 1968～1974; (3)the per unit area yield and chemical fertilizer push the grain yield in 1975～1995; (4)the agriculture machinery and water conservancy are the major factors in 1996～2001. After analyzing the characteristics, it be concluded that the key of promoting grain yield is the match of all factors. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the trend of Xinjiang grain yield as following: enhancing per unit yield , spreading water-saving agriculture, developing the refine process of grain and speeding market course.

关 键 词：粮食生产 农业结构调整 畜牧业 种植业 新疆 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]