GERT网络活动关键度指数的Monte-Carlo模拟分析  

Analysis of Criticality Indexes of Activities in GERT Networks by Using Monte-Carlo Simulation Method

作　　者：何正文[1] 徐渝[1] 朱少英[1] 冯锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]大同大学,山西大同037000

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2004年第1期1-6,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(59990470-4);山西省软科学研究项目(031047-4)

摘　　要：本文首先给出GERT网络活动关键度指数的定义;随后讨论了GERT网络的模拟求解方法,在此基础上得到GERT网络活动关键度指数的Monte-Carlo模拟计算步骤;最后,对一个实际R＆D项目的GERT网络活动关键度指数进行了模拟分析,由此说明了本文研究成果的应用价值。The definition of criticality indexes of activities in GERT networks is given in this paper at first. Then Monte-Carlo simulation method to solve GERT networks is discussed, and on the basis of this method the procedure to calculate criticality indexes of activities is derived. At last, criticality indexes of activities of a practical R&D project are analyzed through Monte-Carlo simulation method and some valuable outcomes are obtained, thus illustrating the practicality of the results presented in this paper.

关 键 词：GERT网络 活动关键度指数 MONTE-CARLO模拟 项目管理者 

分 类 号：F224.33[经济管理—国民经济]