桥梁工程中河床演变的风险评估  

Risk Assessment of River Bed Evolution in Bridge Engineering

作　　者：黎维祥[1,2] 张宏铨[3] 何文钦[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学 [2]中交第四航务工程勘察设计院广东广州510230 [3]中交第四航务工程勘察设计院

出　　处：《水运工程》2004年第3期30-33,共4页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：通过层次分析法和德尔菲法计算分析影响河床演变的主要因素及河床的稳定性;同时根据河床断面深槽演变的历史数据,通过概率统计和定性风险评定法对河床演变对桥梁工程的风险进行评估,最后应用到上海某桥梁工程中。This paper calculates and analyzes the main factors affecting river bed evolution and stability of river bed through the analytic method and Delphi method,and evaluates the risks from riverbed evolution to bridge engineering by probability method and qualitative risk assessment method based on the historical data of riverbed deep-slot evolution.The assessment has been applied in a bridge engineering in Shanghai.

关 键 词：河床演变 风险评估 不确定性 稳定性 

分 类 号：U695.22[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]