应用多元回归分析鄱阳湖区影响日本血吸虫病传播的因素  

Application of Multivariate Regression in Analyzing Factors of Schistosomiasis Japonica Transmission in Poyang Lake

作　　者：伍卫平[1] 林丹丹 胡飞 官亚宜[1] 王延安[1] 祝红庆[1] 曹淳力[1] 陈红根 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所世界卫生组织疟疾,血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心,上海200025 [2]江西省寄生虫病研究所,南昌330046

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2003年第3期164-166,共3页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

基　　金：本研究获UNDP/WORLD BANK/WHO TDR(ID NO.970907)基金资助;中国预防医学科学院留学回国人员科学研究启动基金资助

摘　　要：目的 分析鄱阳湖区日本血吸虫病传播的影响因素。方法 收集1992～1998年鄱阳湖区连续观察3年以上的血吸虫病流行村的血吸虫粪检阳性率、化疗和灭螺药物用量、易感地带面积、家畜感染率、降雨量和气温的数据。采用多元逐步回归的方法进行数据分析。结果 经检验回归模型具有统计学显著性,R^2=0.735,P<0.01。可接受的变量为:上年度人群感染率的自然对数,人均易感地带面积,家畜感染率,单位易感地带面积,氯硝柳胺的用量(元)和单位感染率吡隆酮用量(元)。结论 在人群感染率,人均易感地带面积,家畜感染率仍然促进血吸虫病传播的情况下,化疗和灭螺有效地降低了该类地区日本血吸虫病的传播。Objective To analyze factors affecting transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in Poyang Lake. Methods Successive surveillance data for at least three years from 1992 to 1998 at the schistosomiasis endemic administrative villages surrounding Poyang Lake were collected, including the egg positive rate by stool examination, investment on treatment of patients and mollusciciding in snail habitat, risk areas, bovine infection rate. Data on rainfall and temperature were also obtained from the relevant agencies. Step-wised regression method was employed to analyze the data. Results The regression model established is statistically significant, R2 equals 0. 735, P < 0. 01. The accepted variables affecting the transmission of the disease were natural logarithm of human infection rate in last year, risk areas, infection rate of bovine, investment values of niclosamide per risk area and value of praziquantel administered per infection rate. Conclusion Chemotherapy and mollusciciding effectively reduced schistosomiasis transmission in Poyang lake region, while the infection rate, risk areas, bovine infection rate still drive the transmission.

关 键 词：多元回归分析 鄱阳湖区 日本血吸虫病 传播 流行病学 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]