引潮力与显著地震关系及其在短临预报中的应用  

Relation between tidal force and significant shocks and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction

作　　者：陈荣华[1] 彭克银[1] 薛艳[1] 丁香[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2004年第1期60-64,共5页Earthquake

基　　金：十五"国家科技攻关项目(01 05 01)

摘　　要：对引潮力与显著地震的关系及其在地震短临预报中的应用作了较系统的总结,进一步完善了笔者提出的基于显著地震特点的地震短临预报方法,简称CH方法。1997年至2003年5月应用CH方法所作的全部21次地震短临预报中,与地震实况比较,较好和做了一定程度预报的共有12次,占57%,这表明用于地震短临预报的CH方法具有较好的效能。The systematic summarization is made for the relation between tidal force and significant shock and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction, and our proposed prediction method based on characteristics of significant shocks is improved in this study. The method is named CH method for short. In all 21 short-term and impending predictions from Jan. of 1997 to May of 2003 using CH method, 12 earthquake cased are of the better and a certain extent prediction, accounting for 57%. It indicates that our proposed short-term and impending earthquake prediction method i.e. CH method shows better effect in earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：引潮力 地震短临预报 显著地震 临界状态 震源 

分 类 号：P315.727[天文地球—地震学]