一次地震预测的案例  

A case of earthquake prediction

作　　者：孙士宏[1] 白利平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2004年第1期137-144,共8页Earthquake

基　　金：十五"中国地震局重点科研项目("强地震中期预测新技术;物理基础及其应用研究"子专题"强震中期阶段前兆异常的综合研究")

摘　　要：2001年11月14日昆仑山8.1级地震后,川滇地区的震情引起了地震学者的普遍关注。文中详细阐述了针对当时川滇地区的多种地震与地震前兆观测项的观测异常形成的综合预测意见及预测三要素的判定,并探讨了8.1级地震对这一预测意见的影响及对经验性地震预报的认识。After the Kunlunshan Earthquake with M=8.1 occurred on 14 November 2001, the earthquake situation in the area of Sichuan-Yunnan provinces in Southwestern China has arrested much attention from the experts. This paper elaborated the judgment of the three factors of the earthquake prediction and the synthetic prediction opinions based on the observed anomalies resulted from the earthquake events and the earthquake precursors, and discussed the effect of the Kunlunshan Earthquake on the prediction claims as well as the knowledge of earthquake prediction based on the experiences.

关 键 词：地震预测 川滇地区 地震前兆 震情 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]