受打击时军事伪装目标生存概率的MARKOV链模型研究与分析  

The Markov Chain Model Research and Analysis of on the Existence Probability of Military Pretending Objects as Attacked

作　　者：方志耕[1] 金秀满[2] 刘思峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]解放军汽车管理学院车辆管理教研室,安徽蚌埠233011

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2004年第1期81-84,共4页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家教育部博士学科点科研基金项目(20020287001)

摘　　要：本文运用系统论的思想和随机过程理论,设计了军事目标在隐真与示假伪装时的生存概率计算公式,并构建了其在受到敌方攻击时,生存概率的MARKOV链模型。从而为战时科学合理地估算军事目标的生存概率提供了有效的方法。此外,该模型的构建,也为这一问题的进一步研究打下了良好的基础。The pretending of the military objects is the important ensuring contents,and an action of the battle.Using the thoughts of systems theories and the theory of random process,the paper designs calculating formulas of the existence probabilities on the concealing real objects and showing false objects,and constructs the Markov model of the survival probabilities of the military objects when they are attacked.So,the model proposes an effective method that can reasonably estimate the survival probabilities of the military objects during the battle.In addition,the model provides a good basis to research the problems.

关 键 词：军事目标 伪装效果 示假 隐真 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]