娘子关泉水流量的GM(1,2)时滞预测模型  

GM(1,2) TIME LAG MODEL FOR DISCHARGE OF NIANGZIGUAN SPRING

作　　者：郝永红[1] 黄登宇[2] 高红波 王言荣[1] 刘洁[1] 王素平[1] 王学萌[4] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学环境与资源学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西大学生命科学与技术学院,山西太原030006 [3]阳泉市水利局,山西阳泉045000 [4]山西省农业科学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《中国岩溶》2004年第1期43-47,共5页Carsologica Sinica

基　　金：山西省青年科技研究基金项目(20021028);太原市科技启明星计划项目

摘　　要：娘子关泉位于山西省阳泉市平定娘子关附近,多年平均流量10.93m3/s,是我国北方最大的岩溶泉群。泉域西高东低,西部多为古生界二叠系、中生界三叠系砂页岩覆盖,大气降水入渗在这里形成浅层地下水,这些浅层水是深层岩溶含水层的间接补给水源;泉域东部为岩溶裸露区,大气降水直接入渗补给深层岩溶水。由于岩溶泉域地质结构的复杂性和含水介质的多重性,泉域降水对泉水补给具有明显的灰色动态特征和时滞效应。本文应用灰色系统理论方法,建立了GM(1,2)时滞模型,运用该模型对娘子关泉水流量进行了预测,结果与实际相接近。Niangziguan Spring, the largest karst spring groups in North China, is located near the town of Niangziguan, Pingding County, Yangquan City, Shanxi Province. Its average discharge was 10.93m^3/s from 1956 to 1996. The west of the basin is higher than the east. In the west, the karst is covered with sandy shale of the Permian system, Palaeozoic group and the Triassic system, Mesozoic group. Precipitation forms groundwater through infiltration. And the groundwater is indirect source for the karst aquifer. In the east, karst is uncovered and precipitation supplies karst water directly. Because of the complexity of geological structure and multi-layer character of aquifers, the process that precipitation supplies spring is of obvious gray dynamic feature and time lag effect. Hence, on the basis of gray system theory, the GM(1,2) time lag model is set up. The discharge of Niangziguan Spring is predicted with the model, and the result is accurate and rational.

关 键 词：娘子关泉 灰色系统 GM(1 2)模型 时滞预测 岩溶水 

分 类 号：P641.134[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P333.1[天文地球—地质学]