云南地区地下水动态的地震源兆与场兆特征分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of Source Precursor and Field Precursor of Groundwater in Yunnan

作　　者：王世芹[1] 刘丽芳[1] 付虹[1] 王世芹 刘丽芳[1] 付虹[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局，昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》2004年第2期126-132,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：十五国家科技攻关项目 (项目编号 :2 0 0 1BA60 1B0 1-0 2 -0 5 )

摘　　要：在地震预报中 ,对发震地点的预测一般都是“以场求源”。如何区别源兆与场兆的特征 ,是地震预报特别是短临预报必须回答的问题。根据云南 1 979～ 2 0 0 0年间的 2 0余年中地下水动态观测的事实 ,作者在“七五”、“八五”攻关项目的基础上 ,对地震源兆与场兆的地下水动态特征进行了深入分析 ,认为源兆特征为短临异常多、空间分布密集、以高频异常为主 ;场兆特征为中短期异常多、空间分布稀疏、以破年变异常为主。In the practice of earthquake prediction, people usually forecast the location of the earthquake according to the regulation of'seeking source through field.'How to discriminate the source precursor and the field precursor is the key to the earthquake prediction, especially to the short-term earthquake prediction.On the basis of the results got in the Seventh Five-year Plan and the Eighth Five-year Plan, the characteristics of source precursor and field precursor of groundwater in Yunnan are thoroughly analyzed according to the observational data to ground water from 1979 to 2000.The results show that the source precursor has the following characteristics: (1) short-term and impending anomalies are rich.(2) Anomalies are densely-spaced.(3) High frequency anomalies which break through the mean value of a year are dominant.On the other hand, the field precursor has the following characteristics: (1) Mid-short term precursors are rich.(2) Anomalies are rarely-spaced.(3) Abnormal variations which break through the mean value of a year are dominant.All these characteristics are referential to the further practice of earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地下水异常 地震场兆 地震源兆 云南 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学] P641[天文地球—固体地球物理学]