气田开发风险设计的理论与方法  

THEORY AND METHOD OF RISK DESIGN FOR GAS FIELD DEVELOPMENT

作　　者：李治平[1] 袁士义[2] 姚恒生[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [3]西南石油学院计算机科学系

出　　处：《天然气工业》2004年第4期108-110,共3页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家科技部重大基础研究项目 (973项目 )部分内容 ;课题编号 :2 0 0 1-cb - 2 0 9- 10 8

摘　　要：传统的气田开发设计是将每口井的产量都看成一个定值。但在实际生产中 ,每口井的产量受多种因素的影响 ,是一个不确定值。因任何一个气田的储层在横向上、纵向上都存在非均质的问题 ,表现在不同区域不同层位 ,其产量也不同。按照传统设计方法得到的结果与实际情况存在一定差别。文章根据气田储层的非均质特性 ,引入了产量的随机分布特征和风险系数 ,建立了完成预定总产量的气田开发风险设计计算模型和相应的计算方法 ,建立了风险系数与合理井数计算关系的数学模型 ;从风险设计的原理、计算方法等进行了深入研究 ,并对实例进行了分析与计算。结果表明 ,文章提出的方法具有实用价值。In conventional gas field development, each-well' s production was regarded as a constant. Practically, it is an uncertain value, being influenced by many factors. Because either vertical or lateral heterogeneity can be all found out in any gas field, the single-well production is different in various areas and horizons. There exist a certain difference between the result designed according to the conventional method and that obtained in practice. In the paper, the random distribution character and risk factor of the production are introduced in consideration of the heterogeneity of gas reservoir; the calculation model and method of the risk design for gas field development of finishing total production are established; and the mathematic model of acquiring the relation between risk factor and reasonable number of wells is set up. The principle and calculation method of the risk design were thoroughly studied by the authors. Through an example's analysis and calculation, it is indicated that the method proposed in the paper is of practical value.

关 键 词：非均质油气藏 风险分析 储层 风险系数 孔隙度 渗透率 气田开发设计 

分 类 号：TE373[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]