天然气时代何时到来  

A DISCUSSION ON WHEN THE NATURAL GAS ERA COMES

作　　者：钱凯[1] 李本亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院廊坊分院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2004年第4期118-120,共3页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：文章从人类能源利用向低碳化发展的历史规律出发 ,总结出能源利用大体可以分为 6个时代 :薪炭时代、煤炭时代、石油时代、油气共荣时代 (由作者提出 )、天然气时代、无碳时代。并从油、气在能源结构中的地位、天然气市场发育程度、天然气运输与利用条件和天然气工业的发展前景等方面论证了油气共荣时代的存在。重点讨论了全球天然气时代大约在 2 1世纪 4 0～ 5 0年代到来 ,该时期天然气供给可达 (5 0 0 0～ 6 10 0 )× 10 6t油当量 ,接近或超过石油的供应量。结合中国的国情、资源现状和天然气市场条件进行分析 ,认为中国追求全国能源天然气化的目标较难实现 ,也不太适宜 ,而中国大中型城市实现能源天然气化的目标是可能的 ,从中国和美国的人数、GDP的类比以及从中国达到中等发达国家水平的能源需求两个方面预测 ,中国大中型城市天然气化时代的到来时间在2 0 70年左右 ,滞后于世界天然气时代。According to the historial law of trending toward low carbonification development in energy utilization by humankind, it is concluded that the energy utilization history may be roughly divided into six times, i. e. firewood, coal, oil, oil-gas, gas and no-carbon times. The existence of oil-gas co-flourishing times is expounded in the paper from four aspects, i. e. the position of oil and gas in the energy consuming structure, the degree of expanding gas market, the conditions of transporting and utilizing natural gas and the prospects for developing natural gas industry. It is estimated that the natural gas times will come in the 40' s - 50' s of the 21st century in the whole world and the natural gas of (5000 - 6100) × 106 t oil equivalent will be provided in this period, it being basically close to or beyond the oil volume of supply. In consideration of the Chinese national conditions, gas resources and gas markets, it is pointed out that it is difficult and unsuitable to realize the aim of gasifying the whole China in energy utilization but it is possible to gasify the key cities in China. Through comparing the population and GDP of China with those of USA and in light of the energy demand in China attaining to the level of middle-developed nations, it is predicted in the paper that the arrival of the gasification times of the key cities in China will be in 2070 being latter than the natural gas times of the whole world.

关 键 词：天然气市场 能源结构 能源低碳化 能源供应 能源弹性系数 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]