加州电力危机的动态仿真和防御对策分析(二)定量分析和危机的防御  

DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND COUNTERMEASURE ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA POWER CRISIS Part Two Quantitative Analyses and Crisis Defenses

作　　者：徐群[1] 薛禹胜[1] 王海风[2] 辛耀中[3] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061 [2]Bath大学 [3]国家电力调度通信中心,北京市100031

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2004年第8期23-26,共4页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50377007)

摘　　要：通过长期动态仿真,再现了加州电力危机,定性地分析了各种因素对电力市场稳定性的影 响,指出了实验经济学的重要性。通过引入电力市场的稳定裕度和稳定域概念,用灵敏度技术直接 估计各种稳定措施的临界控制量,定量研究了预防控制、紧急控制和协调控制的效果。Taking the California power crisis of 2000 as an example, this paper studies mechanisms of electricity market stability with digital simulations and data mining of the time response curves. At first, an approximate long-term dynamic model of electricity market is built and influences of many factors on California power crisis are analyzed. Then the stability margin of electricity markets is defined and the critical value of various control actions is quantitatively analyzed based on sensitivity techniques. At last the importance of experimental economics is also emphasized.

关 键 词：电力市场 动态仿真 实验经济学 电力危机的量化 决策支持 

分 类 号：F407.6[经济管理—产业经济]