加州电力危机的动态仿真和防御对策分析 (一)模型的建立和定性分析  

DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND COUNTERMEASURE ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA POWER CRISIS Part One Models and Qualitative Analyses

作　　者：薛禹胜[1] 徐群[2] 辛耀中[3] 王海风[4] 

机构地区：[1]国电自动化研究院/南瑞集团公司,江苏省南京市210003 [2]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061 [3]国家电力调度通信中心,北京市100031 [4]Bath大学

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2004年第7期24-29,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50377007)。

摘　　要：通过数字仿真再现了2000年加州电力危机的动态过程,提取其时间响应曲线的稳定性特征,进行定性和定量的分析,研究电力市场的稳定性机理和可能的防御对策。文中建立了加州电力市场长期动态的近似模型,定性分析了备用容量、投资、长期合同、用户侧电价及阻塞等因素对加州电力危机的影响。The dynamics of California power crisis of 2000 reappear with digital simulation. The stability characteristics are abstracted from time response curves, qualitative and quantitative analyses are performed, and mechanisms of electricity market stability and control strategies are studied. As a result, an approximate long-term dynamic model of California electricity market is built to analyze the influences of reserve power capacity, investment, long-term contracts, customer's price and transmission congestion on the California power crisis. The stability margin of electricity markets and its sensitivity coefficients are defined, which are the essentials for quantitatively studying preventive control of the market crisis.

关 键 词：电力市场 动态仿真 实验经济学 电力危机的量化 决策支持 

分 类 号：F407.6[经济管理—产业经济]