Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP/LASG GOALS Model  

作　　者：马晓燕 郭裕福 石广玉 俞永强 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospherics Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2004年第2期227-235,共9页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.49875012 and 40231004.

摘　　要：The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.

关 键 词：global warming greenhouse gases sulfate aerosols solar variability 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]