On Spatiotemporal Series Analysis and Its Application to Predict the Regional Short Term Climate Process  

作　　者：王革丽 杨培才 吕达仁 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2004年第2期296-299,共4页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Program for Developing Bas ic Sciences in China(Grant No.G1999043405);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40035010).

摘　　要： Based on the theory of reconstructing state space, a technique for spatiotemporal series prediction is presented. By means of this technique and NCEP/NCAR data of the monthly mean geopotential height anomaly of the 500-hPa isobaric surface in the Northern Hemisphere, a regional prediction experiment is also carried out. If using the correlation coefficient R between the observed field and the prediction field to measure the prediction accuracy, the averaged R given by 48 prediction samples reaches 21%, which corresponds to the current prediction level for the short range climate process.Based on the theory of reconstructing state space, a technique for spatiotemporal series prediction is presented. By means of this technique and NCEP/NCAR data of the monthly mean geopotential height anomaly of the 500-hPa isobaric surface in the Northern Hemisphere, a regional prediction experiment is also carried out. If using the correlation coefficient R between the observed field and the prediction field to measure the prediction accuracy, the averaged R given by 48 prediction samples reaches 21%, which corresponds to the current prediction level for the short range climate process.

关 键 词：spatiotemporal series regional climate prediction nonlinear prediction 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]