基于R值评分的年度地震预报能力评价  

Scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction efficiency based on R-value

作　　者：马宏生[1] 刘杰[1] 吴昊[1] 李杰飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2004年第2期31-37,共7页Earthquake

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G19980407)

摘　　要：针对中国大陆东、西部地震活动水平的差异,以东经107°为界用二种方案进行地震预报效能检验的R值评分。第一种方案用西部5.5级、东部5.0级为检验震级下限;第二种方案以西部6.0级、东部5.0级为检验震级下限。结果表明第一种方案更为科学,13年来中国大陆地震预报效能检验平均的R值约为0.26。进一步考虑不同危险区预报震级与实际发生地震震级间的差异,文中还分震级档计算了相应的R值评分。结果显示,我国目前对6.0级左右地震的预测水平较其他震级档更为成功。Corresponding to different seismic activity between eastern China and western China, two schemes, which adopt different magnitude floor levels bounded as longitude 107 degrees eat, are chosen to calculate R-value. The first scheme is that M=5.5 in west China and M=5.0 in east China chosen as floor levels; the second scheme is that M=6.0 in west China and M=5.0 in east China are chosen as floor levels. Results indicate that the first scheme is more scientific, and average R-value of recent 13 years in China's continent is about 0.26. And then the predicted earthquake magnitude in seismic risk areas and the happened magnitude have also been taken into account, R-value of different magnitude levels have been calculated. Results show that earthquake predictions of M=6.0 in China are more successful.

关 键 词：地震预报 预报评分 年度地震危险区 地震活动 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]