水资源可持续利用评价的改进层次分析法  

Improved analytic hierarchy process for evaluating water resources sustaining utilization

作　　者：金菊良[1] 张礼兵[1] 魏一鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木建筑工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《水科学进展》2004年第2期227-232,共6页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：教育部优秀青年教师资助计划(教人司[2002]350);四川大学高速水力学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(0201);安徽省优秀青年科技基金资助项目;安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(01045102)~~

摘　　要：区域水资源可持续利用系统评价是区域可持续发展战略研究中的核心问题之一,它是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会众多指标组成的复杂系统,其关键是如何合理确定各评价指标的权重。为此,探讨了把层次分析法(AHP)作为确定指标权重的实现过程,并提出用加速遗传算法(AGA)修正判断矩阵的一致性,同时计算判断矩阵各要素排序权值的新方法(AGA CAHP)。理论分析和应用实例的研究结果表明,AGA CAHP方法直观、简便,计算结果稳定、精度高,在各种实际系统评价中具有应用价值。As a core problem of regional sustainable development strategy research, evaluation of regional water resources sustaining utilization system is a complex system which consists of indexes of population, resources, environment, economy and society, whose key problem is how to quantify with reasonly the weights of each index of the system. To resolve the problem, the application of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is studied in this paper. In order to correct the consistency of judgement matrix in the AHP, a new method, named AGA-CAHP, is proposed to check the consistency of judgement matrix and, at the same time, compute rank weights by using the accelerating genetic algorithm developed by the authors. The results of theoretical analysis and case study show that the AGA-CAHP has visual, practical, stability and high precision, and that the AGA-CAHP can be applied to other practical evaluation systems.

关 键 词：水资源 可持续利用 层次分析法 遗传算法 评价 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学]