最优前瞻性货币政策规则的设计与应用  

The Designing and Application of the Forward-looking Monetary Policy Rules

作　　者：刘斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局,北京西城区成方街33号100800

出　　处：《世界经济》2004年第4期12-18,共7页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金( 70 2 73 0 5 7)

摘　　要：本文根据中国的实际数据 ,在估计混合型模型的基础上 ,以福利为基准 ,通过随机模拟 ,得到最优前瞻性区间和最优前瞻性货币政策规则。与其他规则相比 ,该前瞻性规则具有其优越性。另外 ,本文分析了前瞻性规则与经济预测的关系 。In this paper, we estimate a hybrid model based on the actual data of China, and then compute the optimal forecasting horizons and forward\|looking monetary policy rules by means of stochastic simulations. As compared to other monetary policy rules, the forward\|looking policy rule has its superiority. In addition, we analyze the relationship between the forward\|looking policy rule and economic forecasts, and provide some suggestions for the further improvements of currents monetary policydecision and implementation in China.

关 键 词：货币政策 滞后效应 前瞻性规则 经济预测 中国 中央银行 社会福利 传导机制 通货膨胀率 估计混合型模型 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]