国家气象中心气象要素的客观预报——MOS系统  

OBJECTIVE ELEMENT FORECASTS AT NMC——A MOS SYSTEM

作　　者：刘还珠 赵声蓉 陆志善 赵翠光 杨元琴 李玉华[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]山东省气象台,济南250031

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2004年第2期181-191,共11页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家气象中心NMC7893 0 2YF2 0 0 1A 0 2"基于数值预报产品释用技术客观预报系统的开发"课题资助

摘　　要：面向全国 2 0 0 0多个台站 ,应用数值预报产品释用MOS技术制作温度、降水、相对湿度、风、云量及能见度等要素预报 ,并实现了预报业务运行。通过建立MOS预报系统 ,表明预报因子和预报对象的处理 ,建方程前的参数选择以及预报因子的选取都会影响要素预报的质量 ,需要做大量的细致工作。预报检验结果显示 ,降水预报尚未达到可用程度 ,温度和相对湿度的短期预报在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的 ,但还有待进一步改进。The meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and visibility are predicted for the whole China by using the equations derived from the MOS (model output statistics) technique. The routine operational forecasts are made once daily for approximately 2230 sites. The qualities of objective element forecasts are affected by the data processing of predictors and predictands, the choice of parameters before making equation and also the choice of predictors. Therefore tremendous and careful efforts are needed. The results of the forecast verification indicate that the short-range forecasts of max/min temperature and max/min relative humidity are reliable in most cases, but still need improvement. However, the forecast of precipitation is far from satisfaction. Its improvement requires the proper selection of predictors and full incorporations of various information obtained from different observation chances.

关 键 词：要素预报 释用技术MOS方法 多元回归 检验 因子分析 

分 类 号：P414[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]