夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验  

THE EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF RECONSTRUCTION FOR SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN CHINA

作　　者：黄嘉佑[1] 刘小宁 李庆祥 

机构地区：[1]北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京100871 [2]国家气象中心气象资料室,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2004年第2期200-206,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家科技基础性工作专项基金项目 2 0 0 1DEA3 0 0 2 9 0 1;国家气象中心课题"台站环境改变对我国气温观测的影响研究"(课题号为ZK2 0 0 2B 1 9)的资助

摘　　要：该文对我国汛期降水量和气温缺测资料及资料均一性恢复的方法进行试验研究。对单个气候地区 (东北区 ) ,以及全国 6个气候地区用逐步回归和逐步判别方法进行缺测 1～ 5年恢复试验。对东北地区内所有站点的试验表明 ,逐步判别分析方法比逐步回归分析方法恢复效果好些 ;选择邻站用判别分析方法建立的恢复模型 ,效果更好。全国气候地区试验表明 。The examination of reconstruction for missing data and homogeneity for summer precipitation and temperature in China was completed. The experimental study is on the reconstruction for missing data for the period of 1～5 years using stepwise regression and stepwise discrimination. It is found that the stepwise discrimination is better than the stepwise regression in the validity of the reconstruction. The experimental studies about different methods of discriminate group show that the discrimination based on Gamma distribution is better with a good validity. The discrimination selected nearly stations have a good validity than the stepwise discrimination with F value. The experimental results also show that the reconstruction for missing with the little error in the six areas in China on reconstruction using discrimination selected nearly stations.

关 键 词：气候变化 资料恢复 均一性 判别分析 回归分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]