海口湾沿岸风暴潮漫滩风险计算  

Calculation of Overland Risk of Storm Surge off the Haikou Bay

作　　者：梁海燕[1,2] 邹欣庆[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室 [2]海南省海洋监测预报中心海南海口570311 [3]海南省海洋监测预报中心

出　　处：《海洋通报》2004年第3期20-26,共7页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金资助项目 批准号:40303

摘　　要：引用《海港水文规范》(1998) 中的方法计算海口湾的极值高水位,计算不同重现期的风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合高水位;同时应用经检验为可靠的台风风暴潮数值模式,由气候学统计方法得出的可能最强台风的参数,按 种路径类型 条路径分别计算,并对产生可能最大风暴潮的假想台风路径根据移 3 12速变化分别计算,由此确定海口湾可能最大风暴潮 (PMSS)。计算所得 3组数据作为海口湾风暴潮漫滩风险值,1 000 a一遇的极值高水位、1 000 a一遇的风暴潮与最高天文潮的组合高水位及可能最大风暴潮与最高天文潮的组合高水位分别为546cm, 634 cm和977 cm。In this paper, firstly, we use the method provided by the Seaport Hydrology Standard ( 1998) calculate the extreme high level off the Haikou Bay; secondly, we calculate the combined high level of storm surges in different return periods with the highest astronomical tide level; thirdly, we apply the climatologic statistical method and analyze the parameter of probable max tropical cyclone (PMTC), use the typhoon storm surge numerical model which has been validated credible to calculate the probable max storm surge (PMSS) which is caused by 12 tracts of PMTC. At the same time we consider the storm surge variety caused by the various speeds of PMTC, to identify the PMSS off the Haikou Bay; The three group values will be used to analyze the storm surge's overland risk off the Haikou Bay.

关 键 词：海口湾 风暴潮 风险分析 可能最大风暴潮 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]