灰色系统理论在地震预报中的应用  

APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE

作　　者：彭立国[1] 陆明勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系,合肥230026 [2]中国地震局综合观测中心,北京100039

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2004年第2期120-123,共4页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

摘　　要：研究了灰色系统理论在地震预报中的应用 ,作为应用实例 ,对南北地震带北段及其邻近地区M≥ 6 .0地震进行了建模和预测。根据模型检验精度、模型的关联度R、后验差比值C、小误差概率P等项指标说明所建模型可靠、精确 。In this paper,the application of grey system theory to the prediction of earthquakes studied,and GM model for strong earthquake(%M%≥6.0) in the region of northern segments of South-North Seismic Belt and its adjacent area have been built and the prediction is done. From the tested accuracy and the results calculated by the model ,some indexes of the GM model, such as the association degree R ?correlative value of posterior error C and microerror probability P , show that the GM model of grey system theory for strong earthquake in the region of northern segments of South-North Seismic Belt and its adjacent area is reliable and accurate. Therefore the application of grey system theory is feasible and reasonable for the earthquake prediction .

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 地震预报 南北地震带 关联度 精度 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]