三个路径相似降雨特征不同的热带气旋分析  

Analysis of Three Tropical Cyclones with Similar Tracks but Different Precipitation Feature

作　　者：范爱芬[1] 李秀莉 董加斌 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,210093 [2]浙江省气象台

出　　处：《气象》2004年第5期33-37,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：比照路径相似台风的降雨制作台风降雨预报是台风业务预报的常规方法之一。但台风飞燕、桃芝及一次热带低压路径虽极为相似 ,它们的降雨强度和降雨分布则差异很大。通过对台风飞燕、桃芝及一次热带低压的大气环流形势特征、物理量场诊断结果和卫星云图的对比分析 ,发现热带气旋影响地的前期环境场、热带气旋影响期间西风带低槽和副热带高压的强弱及其相互配置以及它们与热带气旋的相互作用是造成路径相似的三个热带气旋出现降雨差异的主要原因。该分析结果对台风降雨的业务预报有实际意义。TC precipitation prediction based on corresponding track-similar TC precipitation is one of operational TC precipitation forecasting methods. Typhoon Chebi(0102), Toraji(0108) and a Tropical Depression have similar tracks and both brought about heavy rains in Zhejiang Province, but their precipitation intensity and distribution have different features. Based on the operational prediction, the detailed analyses were conducted on the atmospheric circulation features, physical quantity diagnoses and satellite images. It is found that the precipitation differences of the three tropical cyclones are mainly resulted from different atmospheric circulation backgrounds, environmental conditions of Zhejiang Province, the different intensity of TC, westerly trough, subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean and interactions between TC and westerly systems/subtropical systems. The conclusion is useful to operational TC precipitation prediction.

关 键 词：热带气旋 相似路径 降雨特征 台风业务预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]