Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes  

作　　者：王丽凤[1] 马丽[1] DavidVere-Jones 陈时军[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心，中国北京100036 [2]惠灵顿大学计算机和数学学院，新西兰 [3]山东省地震局，中国济南250014

出　　处：《地震学报》2004年第2期162-173,共12页Acta Seismologica Sinica

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074013;40134010);Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.

摘　　要：Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaike′s AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

关 键 词：随机AMR模型 参数估计 最大似然法 AIC准则 强震 地震预报 地震活动 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学] P315.6[天文地球—固体地球物理学]