应用Reed-Frost模型探讨风疹爆发应急性预防接种近期卫生经济学效果  

A Study on Health Economics Effectiveness of Emergent Vaccination for Rubella Outbreak by Using Reed-Frost Model

作　　者：吴金贵[1] 冯青[1] 邓国支[1] 方大春[1] 高峰[1] 陈凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]马鞍山市疾病预防控制中心,安徽马鞍山243011

出　　处：《中国计划免疫》2004年第2期99-102,共4页Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization

摘　　要：为探讨风疹应急性预防接种的近期卫生经济学效果 ,通过对马鞍山市 12所小学风疹爆发进行流行病学调查 ,并按卫生经济学研究方法收集风疹爆发的成本资料。首先利用 1所小学自然爆发至终止的数据建立本次风疹爆发的Reed Frost模型 ,以此模型预测其它 11所小学经应急性预防接种的理论风疹发病人数 ,进而推算应急性预防接种的成本 效果与成本 效益。结果显示 :11所小学风疹的理论显性发病例数为 115 7例 ,应急性预防接种减少了风疹发病 10 5 0例 ;应急性预防接种预防 1例风疹的成本 34 2 3元 (人民币 )。应急性预防接种的成本效益比(CBR)为 1/ 3 0 2 ,增量成本效益比 (ICBR)为 1/ 4 80。提示风疹爆发应尽早进行风疹疫苗的应急性预防接种 ,且应急性预防接种是控制风疹爆发经济有效的措施。To evaluate the effectivness of health economics of emergent vaccination for rubella outbreak,using analyisis method of health economics,we investigated rubella outbreak in 12 primary schools and emergently vaccinated among 11 primary schools in a small city of southeast China.At first,a Reed-Frost model was set up,and then,the cases of rubella were predicted by the model.The results showed that the number of expected cases and prevented cases was 1 157,1 050 repectively in 11 primary schools.The cost of prevention was 34.23 RMB per case.The CBR(cost-benefit ratio)and ICBR(increasement cost-benefit ratio)were 1/3.02 and 1/4.80 respectively.The results indicated that emergent vaccination should be taken as soon as possible when the rubella bursts out.Furthermore,the emergent vaccination is one of the best ways to control rubella outbreak in the view of health economics.

关 键 词：Reed-Frost模型 风疹 爆发 应急性预防接种 卫生经济学 成本-效益分析 成本-效果分析 

分 类 号：R511.2[医药卫生—内科学] R186[医药卫生—临床医学]