多元统计分析在材料贮存寿命预测中的应用  

Application of Multivariate Statistical Analysis in Prediction of Storage Life of Materials

作　　者：鲁蕾[1] 范启胜 刘晓石[3] 黄雪鹰 付敏[1] 郭宝星[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学轻纺学院,四川成都610065 [2]吉林白城中国兵器试验中心,吉林白城13700 [3]四川大学数学学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《四川大学学报（工程科学版）》2004年第3期115-118,共4页Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition)

摘　　要：冲击强度是轻武器材料的一个重要参数。为预测材料的贮存寿命,将两类材料进行加速热老化实验,以冲击强度为评判指标,先用方差分析法分析老化因素对冲击强度的显著性,再使用二元回归分析法处理加速老化实验数据,得到二元线性回归方程。经显著性检验,将回归方程用于材料冲击强度的预测和材料失效时间的估计。结果显示,冲击强度对温度和时间是极其敏感的,随着老化时间的延长和老化温度的升高,冲击强度显著降低。To predict the storage life of materials,two materials were used in the accelerated thermal aging test(ATAT). With the impact strength as criteria for evaluation, the significance of aging factors to impact strength was analysed by variance method. By analyzing the experimental data of ATAT with the bivariate regression, the linear regression equation was obtained. After the test of significance, the regression equation was applied to estimate the out-of-service time and predict the impact strength of the two kinds of materials. It concludes that impact strength is sensitive to temperature and time, and it evidently degrades as the aging time growing and the aging temperature increasing.

关 键 词：冲击强度 方差分析 回归分析 老化 失效 预测 

分 类 号：O631.3[理学—高分子化学]