MM5模式中不同对流参数化方案对降水预报效果影响的对比试验  

COMPARISON EXPERIMENTS ON THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME IN MM5 ON PRECIPITATION PREDICTION

作　　者：王晨稀[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科学》2004年第2期168-176,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助 (批准号 :4 0 0 0 5 0 0 3)

摘　　要：本文应用MM5模式 ,在 4 5km和 2 5km模式分辨率及Blackadar和MRF边界层参数化方案下 ,选择AK、Grell、KF和BM等 4种对流参数化方案对非汛期 2 2个降水个例进行 4 8h预报试验。结果表明KF和AK方案预报的降水量误差较小 ,BM方案预报的降水量误差较大 ;各种方案预报降水效果的优劣对于量级不同的降水是不同的 ,对中雨、大雨和暴雨的预报 ,没有哪一种方案的预报效果是绝对最优的 ;不同方案预报降水结果的差异对量级大的降水比对量级小的降水大 ;在大部分情况下 ,相同方案在 4 5km分辨率下的预报结果好于在 2 5km分辨率下的预报结果。In the present paper,MM5 model is used as the experimenting model. With four kinds of cumulus parameterization schemes (AK、Grell、KF and BM),48-hour predicting experiments are made for 22 precipitation cases from Nov. 2001 to May 2002 under two kinds of model horizontal resolutions (45 and 25 km) and two kinds of PBL schemes (Blackadar and MRF). The results indicate the predicted rainfall error of KF or AK scheme is smaller,and the error of BM scheme is larger. Any scheme's predicting effect for one category precipitation is different from the effect for another category precipitation. When 24h rainfall is larger than 10 mm or 25 mm or 50 mm,no scheme's predicting effect is the best. The difference between different scheme's results for large category precipitation is larger than the difference for small category precipitation. Under most circumstances, same scheme's predicting effect under the resolution of 45 km is better than that under the resolution of 25 km.

关 键 词：对流参数化方案 降水 预报效果 

分 类 号：P43[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]