我国近百年气温的非趋势波动分析  

DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OVER CHINA DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS

作　　者：江田汉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学系,北京100871

出　　处：《气象科学》2004年第2期199-204,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家气象中心自建项目ZK2 0 0 2ASZ 0 7资助

摘　　要：为研究我国近百年气温的长程相关规律 ,通过对我国近百年月平均温度序列的非趋势波动分析 ,初步得出以下几个结论 :我国近百年气温存在内在的长程相关性 ;标度指数α 0 .6 6 ;尽管大于 18a尺度区间的α与小于 18a尺度区间的α有所不同 ,但可能由于所分析的温度序列长度受到限制 ,没有足够充分的理由认为 18a是个交叉点。To study the specific law and the scale range of long-range correlation,series of average monthly anomaly over China from Jan. 1873 to Nov.1990 is analyzed with the detrended fluctuation analysis. The preliminary results show as follows. Firstly,there exists the long-range correlation in the average monthly temperature fluctuations. Secondly,the temperature fluctuations can be characterized by a long-range power-law correlation with an exponent =0.66.Thirdly,the scale of 18 years can not be regarded as a crossover for the limit of the length of the series,though the exponent at large scale of more than 18 years is different from that of less than 18 years.

关 键 词：温度序列 气候变化 非趋势波动分析 长程相关性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]