三元悖论对我国汇率制度改革的指导研究  

Study of the reform policy for the CHY exchange rate system based on Mundell model

作　　者：张晨[1] 杨善林[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2004年第3期229-232,共4页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：安徽省软科学基金资助项目(03035005)

摘　　要：现行的人民币汇率是有管理的浮动汇率制,实际为盯住美元。然而中美两国间生产要素无法自由流动,单一盯住美元不利于准确评价汇率政策的效果,也不符合人民币逐渐走向自由兑换的要求。文章分析我国汇率制度现存的问题以及改革的阻力,结合蒙代尔"三元悖论"探讨人民币汇率制度向着浮动汇率发展的改革政策。The current exchange rate system in China has been the managed floating system since 1994,and the China yuan(CHY) exchange rate system has in fact been pegged on the US dollar(USD). In view of the fact that essential production factors cannot move freely between China and the U.S. and that there is a great discrepancy in inflation rate between the two countries, the single pegging of CHY on USD is neither favorable to assessing the effect of exchange rate policy correctly nor coincident with realizing the target of CHY's convertibility. In this paper,the problems related and the reform resistance are analyzed,and by employing the Mundell model,the reform policy for the CHY exchange rate developing towards the more flexible system is studied.

关 键 词：盯住浮动 蒙代尔“三元悖论” 最适度货币区理论(OCA) 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]