中国宏观经济预测模型算法及应用  

Algorithm and application of Chinese macro-economic forecast model

作　　者：周鹏[1] 唐焕文[1] 赵晶[1] 毛海军[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学应用数学系,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报》2004年第3期342-346,共5页Journal of Dalian University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10071010).

摘　　要：在已有研究基础上,给出了一个简化的预测模型,讨论了模型中参数的选择方法;引入了逐步法来求解该模型,并对该方法中满意目标的选择与最大宽容值的确定进行了探讨.对1998～2005年中国宏观经济发展的部分指标进行了预测和分析.On the basis of the primary research, a reduced forecast model is introduced and the method of the preferences of the model is discussed. Subsequently, an algorithm named the step method is introduced to solve the solution of the model. The authors also probe into the choice of the satisfactory goal and the definition of the maximal allowance value. Finally, the authors forecast and analyze some indices about the development of Chinese macro-economy from 1998 to 2005.

关 键 词：中国 宏观经济 预测模型 投入产出分析 直接消耗系数 投资系数 逐步法 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济] O221.6[理学—运筹学与控制论]