甘肃省农作物产量主要影响因素诊断分析  

Diagnosis on influential factors of crop productionin Gansu province

作　　者：王润元[1] 韩永翔[1] 刘宏谊[1] 张平兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2004年第2期127-131,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金暨中青年科技基金项目(YS981-A21-024)

摘　　要：近50a来,甘肃省短期气候产量具有明显的3a周期,长期气候产量有明显的8～9a、16～17a的周期。技术产量不仅取决于农业生产技术水平和人类抗灾能力,还受气候因素的制约。随着时间尺度的增加,气候对产量的影响逐渐削弱,农业生产技术水平对产量的影响逐渐加大。3a以下,气候对产量的影响较大,3～7a,农业生产技术水平对产量的影响迅速上升,8a以上,农业生产技术水平对产量的影响占第一位。在更长的时间尺度内,农业生产技术水平和气候之间哪一个对产量的影响更大,这不仅牵涉到时间尺度,而且同气候、农业生产技术水平的突变有关。In the recent fifty years, there were obviously 3 year periods for the short-term climatic yield, and 8~9 year and 16~17 year periods for long-term climatic yield in Gansu province. The technical yield is not only determined by the agro-technological level and the diaster resistance ability of human, but also influenced by climatic factors. With the expansion of the time scale, the effect of climatic factors tends to be weakened, while that of agro-technologies tends to be increased. Within three years, the effect of climate is larger than that of technologies; form three to seven years, the effect of agro-technologies goes up rapidly; when time scale is over eight years, the effect of agro-technologies becomes dominant. For a longer time scale, the relative importance of climatic factors and agro-technologies is not only related to the time scale, but also to the mutation of climate and technologies.

关 键 词：甘肃 农作物 产量 影响因素 诊断分析 气候条件 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]