种植业结构优化的系统动力学方法研究  

Optimization of crop structure by applying systematic dynamics

作　　者：孙平安[1] 林年丰[1] 王娟[1] 李昭阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院,吉林长春130026

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2004年第2期164-168,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40072093)

摘　　要：以生态环境学为基础,将系统动力学方法应用于种植业结构优化的研究,并针对地处干旱半干旱地区的吉林省长岭县种植业的实际情况,采用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,建立了种植业结构优化的系统动态仿真模型,提出了"自然发展型"、"经济效益型"、"生态型"、"协调发展型"等多个设计方案,经过对比参照和多方论证,最终确定了"协调发展型"作为长岭县种植业结构的优化方案,并提出了实现该方案的措施和途径。On the basis of ecological environment science, this paper applies systematic dynamics to optimize the crop structure in Changling County, Jilin Province which lies in the arid and semiarid area, and constructs the systematic dynamic imitation model by the qualitative and quantitative ways. Several scenarios including natural development, economic benefit, ecological protection and harmonious progress are simulated and analyzed. As a result, the 'harmonious progress' project is determined, and the strategies and the approaches to realize it is also brought forward.

关 键 词：种植业结构优化 系统动力学 仿真模拟 生态环境学 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]