粮食供给系统模型及最优策略的研究  

Research on grain supply system model and optimal tactics

作　　者：聂荣[1] 潘德惠[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2004年第3期307-311,共5页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家重点科技攻关资助项目(97-582-03-01).

摘　　要：通过建立分布参数系统模型描述中国粮食供给关于自产量及进口量的动态分布情况,包括分布密度函数的积分方程及初边值条件;探讨了以寻求社会整体福利水平最大化为目的的粮食供给控制策略;在考虑各种随机因素的基础上给出了粮食供给分布模型在生产、进口及市场需求预测方面的应用方程.可为政府制定宏观政策及供给者对资源的优化配置等决策问题提供科学的参考依据.A grain supply model is presented to depict the dynamic levels of output and import amount using distributed parameter system. In the model, there are integral equation and initial-boundary value qualification about a distribution density function. As is well known, the proceeds among producer, consumer and revenue are restricted or related to each other, to improve the social welfare maximization, the optimal control tactics is also put forward, in which the control variables are average productivity and average import rate. In the end, this paper establishes the forecasting models about grain supply, grain import and grain demand, under considering various kinds of stochastic factors. The results can provide scientific evidence for the government to make agricultural policy and producer to draw up productive plan.

关 键 词：分布参数系统 动态优化模型 粮食供给预测 社会福利最大化 

分 类 号：F224.11[经济管理—国民经济]