运用信号分析法建立我国的金融风险预警系统  

On Setting Up an Early Warning System against Financial Risks in Our Country Using Method of Signal Analysis

作　　者：吴海霞[1] 邢春华[1] 孙婵娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2004年第6期51-56,共6页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<国际资本流动对国际经济体系的影响>(项目编号:02BJL045)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：在全球金融自由化程度不断加深的大背景下,我国金融对外开放程度不断加深,建立适合国情的金融风险预警系统的重要性和紧迫性日益明显。借鉴国际上影响广泛的KLR信号分析法,本文根据国情建立了一套金融风险预警系统,选取一系列系统性及非系统性风险监测指标,确定不同风险状态下的预警界限,通过数据处理,最终进行风险的灯号显示。在此基础上,结合我国的具体数据进行了实证分析,发现我国金融风险在系统性风险方面表现为财政风险突出,非系统性风险则聚集在银行系统。因此,我国有必要从财政、银行资本及内控制度、资本市场和金融监管多方面入手,构建金融风险的防范机制。Along with the deepening of global financial liberalization and China’s further opening to the outside world,the importance and urgency of setting up a financial early warning system suitable to China’s conditions has become more and more obvious.On the basis of internationally famous KLR method of signal analysis,a series of system and non-system risk indicators are used to establish a China-specific early warning system of finance.Early warning limits at different risk levels are defined.Through data processing,risk signals are finally displayed.Moreover,an empirical analysis is made with reference to concrete data in our country.It is found that as far as our financial risks are concerned,system risks are obvious in public finance,while non-system risks are concentrated in banking sector.Therefore,it is imperative to set up a financial risk aversion mechanism in the field of public finance,banking capital and internal control,capital market and financial supervision.

关 键 词：KLR信号分析法 金融风险预警系统 中国 非系统性风险 预警界限 指标体系 商业银行 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]