腐败与货币危机关系的实证研究  

Positive Research of Relation of Corruption and Currency Crisis

作　　者：杨胜刚[1] 何靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2004年第6期34-40,共7页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：杨胜刚主持的国家社科基金规划项目<开放条件下中国反洗钱监管网络问题研究>的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：“亲密资本”和预期自致型模型被认为是对货币危机的两个典型的对立的解释。本文研究了二者之间可能存在的相互联系:不同的资本形式有不同的风险特征,当公众预期发生变化时非直接投资比直接投资容易发生逆转从而引发货币危机,而一个国家的腐败与其流入资本的构成有一定的相关性。这样,本文通过“资本流入构成”将腐败与货币危机联系起来。最后,本文分析了我国资本流入构成与腐败的情况。Crony capitalism and self-fulfilling expectations by international creditors are often suggested as two rival explanations for currency crisis. This paper examines a possible linkage between the two that has not been explored much in the literature: corruption may affect a country’s composition of capital inflows in a way that makes it more likely to experience a currency crisis that is triggered/aided by a sudden reversal of international capital flows. And finally, this paper made an analysis of the status of composition of capital inflows and corruption in China.

关 键 词：货币危机 实证研究 腐败问题 国际直接投资 国际银行贷款 国际证券投资 

分 类 号：F821.5[经济管理—财政学]