集对分析在云南强降水预报集成方法中的应用  

Application of Set Pair Analysis to Yunnan Heavy Precipitation Processes Forecast Ensemble

作　　者：许美玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台

出　　处：《气象》2004年第6期39-42,共4页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：云南省"十五"攻关项目 2 0 0 1NG4 3资助

摘　　要：将集对分析中的联系度概念用于云南省强降水过程预报集成 ,首先对强降水天气过程进行分型 ,确定MM5模式预报、省台客观指导预报、预报员经验预报与云南强降水过程的联系度 ,用权重法将强降水预报进行集成 。The concept of contact degree in Set Pair analysis is applied to heavy precipitation processes forecast ensemble in Yunnan Province. First, the heavy precipitation processes is defined into different patterns. Contact degree among severe precipitation processes and forecast of MM5 meso scale model or objective forecast of Yunnan Province or empirical forecast of forecaster are confirmed. The weighting method is used to integrate with severe precipitation processes forecast. Finally, the severe precipitation processes forecast ensemble method is given.

关 键 词：集对分析 联系度 强降水 预报 天气过程分析 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]