区域和沟谷相结合的泥石流预报及其应用  

Debris Flow Forecast Combined Regions and Valleys and Its Application

作　　者：韦方强[1] 汤家法[2] 谢洪[1] 钟敦伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [2]西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《山地学报》2004年第3期321-325,共5页Mountain Research

基　　金：中国科学院重点项目北京山区泥石流及防治对策研究(KZ952-J1-027);中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目(C3200307)~~

摘　　要：在分析泥石流预报现状和泥石流减灾决策对泥石流预报的要求的基础上,提出了建立区域和单沟相结合的泥石流预报的问题。以泥石流发育的基础数据库、降水的动态预报与监测和泥石流预报模型为基础,以GIS技术为工具,建立泥石流预报平台。泥石流预报模型采用基于模糊数学的泥石流预报模型,预报结果应用概率分级进行表述,以适应泥石流预报准确率低的不足,并最大程度地克服了过分依赖临界降水量进行泥石流预报的不足。将该泥石流预报方法应用到北京山区泥石流预报中,建立了北京山区泥石流预报系统。The subject of debris flow forecast combined regions and valleys is taken out based on the analysis of present debris flow forecast research and the demand of debris flow disasters mitigation. The platform of debris flow forecast combined with regions and valleys is set up with the basement of the database of background of debris flow development, rainfall prediction and monitoring and debris flow forecast models, as well as with the tools of GIS. The debris flow models are set up with fuzzy mathematics and the outcome of forecasting is probability of debris flow occourrence classified into several grades for being seasoned with the lower accuracy of debris flow forecast based on rainfall statistics and overcoming the uncertain critical value of rainfall on the variable underlaying surface. This kind of debris flow forecast method and technology are applied in debris flow forecast in Beijing mountains and a debris flow forecast system has been set up in Beijing.

关 键 词：泥石流 预报 区域 单沟 应用 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]